At The Business Insider, Henry Blodgett posts a graph that suggests pretty strongly that there is not a whole lot of promise in the jobs outlook in the near future. It's a bit of the worst of both worlds. The current recession has shown the worst decline since the recession of 1948. However, recent recessions have shown a much more sluggish recovery in the jobs picture. So, we're likely to see employment remain in the dumps for a good long while.
What this suggests is that the market may be getting a bit ahead of itself in the recent run-up. The current recovery is anything if not fragile, with the consumer side especially sensitive. When you combine that with the fact that the summer rally isn't on a terribly heavy volume, you have a recipe for a fall retreat. Right now, I'd be looking at issues with heavier international exposure, as I think the dollar is facing some longer-term bear pressure and there's a non-trivial case to be made for global growth outpacing the U.S.
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